CFB/LAB

updated — — FBS teams · sorted by CFB/LAB 26
showing — FBS teams

CFB/LAB 26 is cfb-lab's preseason team rating for 2026. FBS median is ~52; the top 25 sit at 65+, the top 10 at 71+, and the very top around 80. Higher = better team. The ± beside each rating is its 80% range — about 4 of every 5 teams finish inside it. SP+, FPI, and Vegas give you one number; this shows how sure the model is.

How to read the 2026 Outlook

These are predictions for a season that hasn't been played — every rating carries an 80% range. (For settled 2018–25 ratings, see the historical table.) Click any column's ? for exactly how it's computed.
Why you can trust this
  • A range, not just a number. The ± on every CFB/LAB 26 is an 80% prediction band (about ±12). SP+, FPI, ESPN, and Vegas publish a single number with no stated uncertainty — we show ours.
  • Tested on seasons it never saw. Leave-one-season-out, the model is off by about ±9.5 rating points (R² 0.60) — roughly 19% better than assuming each team just repeats last year — and the 80% band really did contain 81% of past teams (n=528). The width is honesty, not weakness.
  • A miss isn't a wrong call. About 1 in 5 teams finish outside their range — that's expected. A band that's never wrong would be too wide to be useful.
  • Reading the band. Two teams whose ranges overlap heavily are roughly even — don't over-read a small rank gap. A wide band (new staff, FCS arrival, heavy roster churn) flags a genuine boom-or-bust bet.
  • No black box. Every column's ? shows the real formula and labels what drives the prediction versus what's shown for context.
Cell colors
bottom 15% bottom third middle top third top 15%
On predicted columns, read colors as broad tiers, not fine rankings — neighbors are often a coin-flip apart.
  • CFB/LAB 26 (the prediction column) keeps its gold gradient at the top of the range
Interactions
  • Click a header to sort; click a row to expand its projection detail (model breakdown · 2026 staff · projected schedule).
  • Opponent names inside an expanded schedule jump to that team's row.
  • The URL syncs with the open team — reload or share ?team=indiana to land on the same row.
What each column is
Our 2026 predictions
CFB/LAB 26
Predicted 2026 rating, with its 80% ± range
Δ vs 25
Predicted 2026 minus actual 2025
Proj W-L
Expected wins across the 2026 schedule
SOS
Average projected rating of 2026 opponents
What drives the prediction
CFB/LAB 25
Final 2025 rating — the single biggest driver
QB1
Projected starting-QB quality
Coach Idx
Staff rating (50% HC + 30% OC + 20% DC)
Context — shown, but doesn't change the prediction
OL · Off · Def
2026 outlook composites by unit
★ Starter
Projected-starter recruiting talent
Proven · Tal Gap
Production-based talent, and the gap vs recruiting stars
Portal Net
Net transfer-portal value

Sources: CollegeFootballData, ESPN & school rosters, CBS snap-share, 247Sports/On3 recruiting, and Homegrown coach ratings · 2026 preseason rosters.